THE METHOD AND RESULTS OF OBSERVATION, CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE KINEMATIC PRECURSOR TAU

Abstract

The method of the precursor's observation and calculation is described in detail in several papers [1,2]. Let us briefly discuss the main features of the method.
The kinematic method for predicting strong earthquakes rests on observations of the travel times of P and S - waves from local earthquakes recorded by the regional network of seismic stations in the study region. The physical basis of the methodology is the understanding of the preparation process direction of strong earthquakes and recording of the regular changes of mechanical and physical characteristics of the environment, including the kinematic parameters of the seismic field .The environment restructuring occurs
under the influence of the stress field growth. The directed development process in the future strong
earthquake preparation leads to directional changes in the physical and mechanical parameters of the
environment also. This process is reflected in the parameters of the seismic field, including changes in travel
times of body P- and S- waves and the velocity ratio of these waves - parameter TAU.